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New Broncos GM George Paton must get the team on back on track fast. After finishing 4-1 to close out the 2019 season, Drew Lock and Co. failed to capitalize on the momentum in 2020. Outgoing general manager John Elway brought in free agents Melvin Gordon and Graham Glasgow, drafted receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, and traded for defensive starters A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey - but the team regressed. Here's what Paton must do ahead of free agency to best maximize the roster with Lock on a rookie contract.
Re-sign Justin Simmons, Shelby Harris, And Will Parks
As of this writing, the Broncos have the seventh-most cap space entering free agency at just over $31 million to re-sign priority free agents Justin Simmons, Shelby Harris, and Will Parks. For perspective, the team is just one of 11 teams to have $20 million-plus of cap space. The team released A.J. Bouye last week as well, saving $11.68 million. The Broncos save another $11.87 million releasing Jurrell Casey, who appeared in just three games in 2020 after he was acquired via a trade with the Titans. The potential move bumps the Broncos' cap space to just over $42 million, but for this exercise, we're assuming he stays.
Justin Simmons
After playing on the franchise tag, Justin Simmons, 27, is looking to cash in. Simmons' $11.44 tag number in 2020 was the seventh-highest among safeties. Ranking as Pro Football Focus' (PFF) eighth-best safety, including the seventh-best in coverage, Simmons is looking to top fellow safety Budda Baker's $14.75 annual salary clip. Franchise tagging Simmons again runs the Broncos $13.7 million, according to Sports Illustrated. That would make Simmons the sixth-highest paid safety in 2021, but is more likely the floor for negotiations on a multi-year contract.
Prediction: Simmons re-signs on a five-year, $72.5 million deal.
Shelby Harris
Shelby Harris, meanwhile, unexpectedly re-signed with the Broncos last offseason on a one-year, $3.25 million contract. Harris, 30 in August, was expected to cash out in free agency, but free agency musical chairs caught the pass-rusher standing up. Harris graded out as PFF's eighth-best interior defender, including the eighth-best in pass rush. The 6-foot-2 Harris notably has 16 pass deflections the past two seasons, as well, a staple of his game.
Prediction: Harris re-signs on a three-year, $30 million deal.
Will Parks Will Parks left the Broncos last offseason for an opportunity to start in Philadelphia, but ended up claimed off waivers by the Broncos the last month of the season. Parks filled in nicely at slot corner as injuries wiped out the Broncos' top three corners, and he adds depth behind Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson at the safety position - his natural position. Jackson is a potential cap casualty - the Broncos save $10 million - entering the final year of his contract. Either way, Parks is a strategic signing that keeps roster construction flexible.
Prediction: Parks re-signs on a one-year prove-it deal, this time with the Broncos.
These moves will cost the Broncos $25-$30 million of their cap space. Getting these deals done means Casey only returns at a reduced salary. The team may look to shed about $5 million more releasing Nick Varnett and Jeff Driskel, as well. Speaking of backup quarterbacks ...
Sign A Quarterback
The Broncos reportedly are only interested in Deshaun Watson as an upgrade over Drew Lock. That said, the team must bring in a capable backup if Lock doesn't progress in "Year 2" (he started just five games as a rookie and has 18 career starts after two seasons). Just average QB play puts the Broncos on the playoff bubble, with Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Noah Fant as the offensive supporting cast. Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are two options. Dalton completed 64.9% of his passes, threw for 2,170 yards, and posted a 14:8 TD:INT ratio last season. Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, completed 68.5% of his passes, threw for 2,091 yards, and posted a 13:8 TD:INT ratio. Both starters demonstrated last season they have no problem sitting should Lock progress and each are upgrades over Driskel.
Prediction: Dalton signs a two-year, $10 million deal with the Broncos.
Address Phillip Lindsay Situation
Philip Lindsay is a restricted free agent and a second-round tender costs the Broncos $3.3 million, according to Over The Cap. With Melvin Gordon accounting for $8.9 million of the cap, the Broncos must decide if tendering Lindsay is worth it. The team also could tender the back, then trade him for a draft pick (CC: Matt Breida). Or they don't tender Lindsay and he enters unrestricted free agency.
Prediction: Broncos tender Lindsay, then trade him for a likely Day 3 draft pick.
With Justin Simmons, Shelby Harris, Will Parks, a backup quarterback, and an extra pick on tap via a Phillip Lindsay trade - the Broncos' biggest priorities heading into the draft are cornerback, edge rusher, and inside linebacker. Depending on if the team brings back Casey, one of these priorities may be addressed via free agency. It just depends on the team's available cap space, and market, but the draft is always the most cost effective route.