For the first time since the end of their super-bowl-winning 2015 season, there’s optimism for the Denver Broncos heading into the off-season. Since Kubiak’s second -- and final -- season as the Broncos’ head coach, Elway and co. have led two coaching searches, strung together three consecutive losing seasons, and started a total of seven quarterbacks.
However with lucky number seven -- the seventh quarterback to start for the Broncos in that span -- Drew Lock ending the season starting at quarterback with a 4-1 finish, it appears Lock will be the guy headed into 2020.
With five selections in the first three rounds -- one first rounder, one second rounder, and three third rounders (thank you, Pittsburgh and San Francisco) -- the Broncos are in the position to build off their last two drafts, and contend for a playoff spot in 2020. In those drafts, including undrafted free agents, the Broncos yielded Lock, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, Noah Fant, Dalton Risner, and Dre’Mont Jones.
With that said, let’s examine the three biggest priorities for the Broncos heading into free agency, and see whether those needs are best filled via the draft or free agency.
Decipher Who To Re-Sign And Who To Let Walk Among UFAs
Justin Simmons: According to Over The Cap, the Broncos have the eighth-most cap space -- just under $62 million -- entering the offseason, with just under $500,000 in dead cap space. Though the top of free agency has elite names, the best use of the Broncos’ money is to take care of a slew of their in-house guys before free agency begins. First and foremost, the Broncos must retain Justin Simmons. Entering the season with a new defensive coordinator, the Broncos missed out on a chance to lock up Simmons cheaper than it’ll cost them this offseason. The safety market reset last offseason and Simmons had a stronger 2019 season -- in a new scheme -- after a strong 2018 season. Simmons made just over $2 million in 2019, so it’s understandable if the Broncos put the franchise tag on Simmons at a cost of $12,735,000. Tyrann Mathieu, Landon Collins, and Earl Thomas each inked deals last offseason with annual salaries over $13 million.
Shelby Harris: Shelby Harris, on the other hand, broke out the second half of the 2018 season, helping guide the Broncos to a 6-6 record in December after a 3-6 start. Harris’ most notable play that season was a game-sealing interception in the red-zone against the Steelers in a win that was part of a three-game win streak. After that season, Harris could’ve been had on a multi-year contract for probably under $5 million per, but now, Harris -- and his six sacks -- may be able to parlay a career-year into a pretty penny on the open market. But in a rules loophole during the final year of the collective bargaining agreement, the Broncos could put the franchise tag on Simmons and put the transition tag on Harris as well. The transition tag for defensive tackles this season is $12,321,000. The transition tag is “a one-year tender offer to a player for an amount that is the average of the top 10 salaries at the position,” according to nfl.com. Other teams can negotiate with a player on the transition tag and the player’s original team can refuse to match any offer made -- but if so, the team receives no compensation if the player walks. The franchise tag is broken down into a non-exclusive tag and an exclusive tag. The non-exclusive tag is “a one-year tender offer to a player for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player's position over the last five years, or 120 percent of the player's previous salary, whichever is greater.” If a team doesn’t match an offer on a player on the non-exclusive tag, the team receives two first-round picks. The exclusive tag is basically the same except only the player’s team can negotiate a contract, and the one-year tender offer is the average of the top five salaries at a player’s position for the current year.
Connor McGovern: Connor McGovern could be allowed to walk in free agency if there’s a guard or center the Broncos want to pounce on -- Joe Thuney (Patriots), Brandon Scherff (Redskins) -- but after the yielded results from Ja’Wuan James in Year 1, that’s probably out. However if the Broncos pounce on another guard or center during free agency, McGovern will be replaced at center during the draft. With that said, it’s likely McGovern stays, receives a three-year deal to run parallel with the contracts of Dalton Risner and James, and the Broncos replace guard Ron Leary during the draft as long as McGovern’s price doesn’t spike on the open market.
Ron Leary: In a simultaneous move after re-signing McGovern, the Broncos decline Ron Leary’s option -- a player who hasn’t played a full season in three seasons with the Broncos -- and save close to $8.5 million. Wishful thinking here, but allocating close to or all of the money saved by declining Leary’s option should go toward McGovern’s annual salary on his new deal. In other words, sign McGovern at an annual salary of $8.5 million or less-- or move on.
Derek Wolfe: Derek Wolfe, 30 in February, proved to mesh well in Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme as a pass-rusher, compiling seven sacks in 12 games before ending the season on IR. Like with McGovern, Wolfe’s price could spike on the open market. And if that happens -- and if every defensive linemen expected to hit the open market does -- the Broncos should look to potentially upgrade the position completely. Signing a division rival such as Chris Jones would kill two birds with one stone: weaken the Chiefs and strengthen the Broncos. Other elite, big-money options to potentially consider if Wolfe walks are Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, Lenoard Williams, Arik Armstead, and D.J. Reader.
Will Parks: Will Parks might want to compete to start somewhere in 2020, but if he can hang around in Denver just one more season, Kareem Jackson, 32 in April, -- unless he plays out of his mind in 2020 -- is a potential cap casualty in 2021. In the meantime -- if he re-signs -- Parks can man the nickel corner spot, a position he excelled at in the absence of Bryce Callahan in 2019.
Todd Davis: With limited coverage ability, Todd Davis isn’t a fit at inside linebacker in Vic Fangio’s defense, and the Broncos save $5 million by declining his 2020 option. A member of the Super Bowl 50 team; thank you for your service, Mr. Davis.
Joe Flacco: Feels a little silly to list him, but obviously Joe Flacco must go in the offseason. Flacco’s dead cap hit if he’s released is $13.6 million. That’s a worst-case scenario for the Broncos if they aren’t able to trade Flacco, and it’s honestly not a bad one. As of now, Flacco is one of four Broncos making at least $13 million annually, while every other player on the roster is under $10 million. Restricted free agent Brandon Allen, 1-2 as a starter in 2019, isn’t a bad No. 2 option at his cost. Perhaps the Broncos sign a former starter to be Lock’s backup -- like Shurmur persuading Eli Manning to be a backup next season -- but in any scenario, Flacco won’t be on the Broncos in 2020.
Draft A Receiver In The First Round And Sign A Veteran To Mentor The Young Positional Group
Though Sutton is a bonafide perpetual pro bowl-attending No. 1 receiver for years to come, the rest of the depth chart is filled with young, drifting receivers. DaeSean Hamilton hopefully takes control of the slot receiver position in 2020, a spot he lined up in 63.4% of the time in 2019, while Tim Patrick emerges alongside Sutton on the outside. Patrick, a 2017 undrafted free agent, emerged as the No. 2 during the final month of the 2018 season after Demaryius Thomas was traded and Emmanuel Sanders landed on IR -- posting a 19-242 stat line in the last four games of the season. But, the keyword here is: hopefully. After missing Weeks 2-10 in 2019, Patrick returned from injury, posting a 4-77 stat line on eight targets Week 11 -- but Patrick was nonexistent after that. Hamilton, too, failed to capitalize on a strong finish to 2018 in 2019, eclipsing five catches in a game for the first time in Week 16.
With a free agent wide receiver class headlined by the likes of Amari Cooper, Robby Anderson, Breshad Perriman, A.J. Green, Phillip Dorsett, and Tajae Sharpe, the Broncos are better suited to add a receiver that’ll make the most impact right away -- and be cost effective -- with the 15th pick of the first round. The first four aforementioned receivers will command No. 1 receiver -- or close to it -- money, which you don’t you need to entertain with Sutton on the roster, while the other two are young enough to warrant around $10 million per based on “upside.” Around this time last year, a 24-year-old Devin Funchess yielded a $10 million one-year prove-it deal -- with $7 million guaranteed. Every Broncos receiver under contract in 2020 is making less than $2 million in annual salary -- and with Sutton’s extension coming up -- drafting a receiver at 15 on a team-friendly rookie contract is the best way to address this priority. That said, the Broncos need a veteran “locker room” guy to mentor the positional group as well. Think Jason Avant, and that guy for the Broncos could be Tavon Austin, Randall Cobb, Dontrelle Inman, or Chris Hogan.
Sign A Veteran Cornerback - If Harris Walks - And Draft Another In The Early Rounds
With the standoff between Chris Harris, 31 in June, and John Elway last offseason, and Harris’ expected market, it appears the last piece of the no fly zone will depart Denver. And if the last two seasons have taught Broncos fans anything it’s that Issac Yiadom isn’t a No. 1 corner. Health questions loom around Bryce Callahan, 28, who didn’t play a snap in 2019 after inking basically a two-year $13 million deal last offseason -- with $6.5 million guaranteed.
Ronald Darby, 26, should be on the hunt for another one-year prove-it deal this season and the Broncos should inquire within. Signing a one-year $8.5 million deal last offseason with the Eagles, Darby’s value is lower after ending the season on IR -- appearing in 11 games. Of course, that statement doesn’t sound optimistic to Broncos fans, but Darby -- if he can pass a physical -- is phase 1 of enlisting a shutdown corner. In addition to the off-chance that Darby strikes lightning in a bottle -- and at worse is a suitable No. 2 -- the Broncos need to address cornerback on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. The Broncos can use their original second round pick to address this priority or use some of their third-round capital to finagle another selection in the second round to select a corner. The combination of a determined Darby and Day 2 cornerback selection will help fill the void of Harris, but expect growing pains from the rook and a potential slow start from Darby coming off injury. Other potential veteran cornerbacks on the market for the Broncos are Byron Jones or Logan Ryan.
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