With the regular season around the corner, let’s take a moment to highlight five quarterback options for you to target in the late rounds of your drafts. Unlike fantasy yesteryear, there are legitimately several QBs with top-5 upside currently being drafted in the double digit rounds of ESPN drafts. I get it, there’s an article every year telling you to wait on QB - but after reading this article, you’ll realize this is the optimal strategy for this year. Lastly, before we get started, I advise that waiting on these specific five quarterbacks does come with risk but with that said, all of these signal-callers have performed as a top-5 quarterback either just last season [on a PPG basis] or in 2018.
Note: Obviously, some of these names have severe injury risk, so the key is to draft two of these guys. Essentially, you’d bank on eight weeks of elite production - half of the fantasy season - from both, anything else is icing on the cake. *All data is compiled via FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, and ESPN - unless otherwise noted.*
Matthew Stafford
Currently being drafted in the Round 10/11 range of ESPN drafts, Matthew Stafford was QB4 [21.45 fantasy pts] on a points-per-game basis in 2019, including Weeks 1-9. In that same span, Kenny Golladay was WR9, while Marvin Jones sneakily snuck up to WR13. That said, Golladay is currently being drafted in Round 3, while you can grab Marvin Jones in Round 9. Now, the two caveats here are that before 2019, Stafford was just QB24 [15.18 fantasy pts] on a points-per-game basis the two seasons combined prior to 2019. The second caveat, for Marvin Jones, is that in his eight-game span as WR13, Jones had one monster game: a 10-93-4 stat line against the Vikings that skewed his numbers. Still, he’s an undervalued WR2 on a PPG basis.
Despite the fact it’s not 2017 or ‘18 anymore, Stafford was appointed a new offensive coordinator in 2019 - Darren Bevell. In fact, Stafford’s air yards per attempt in 2019, according to Next Gen Stats, led the league - 10.7 yards. For context, Stafford’s air yards per attempt in 2017 and 2018, respectively, were 7 and 8 under Jim Bob Cooter. I’m on the side of the hill that believes Stafford is just throwing the ball down field more in a new scheme and what we saw from Stafford pre-injury in 2019 is the new norm. I’ll take Stafford’s top-5 upside in Round 10 and try my luck.
Ben Roethlisberger
In the case of Ben Roethlisberger, I can’t blame folks for disregarding the future Hall-Of-Famer. I can, however, let you know that disregarding Roethlisberger in fantasy in 2020 is not a wise move. In 2018 - Roethlisberger’s last full season - Big Ben finished the season as QB2 on a points-per-game basis, behind only Patrick Mahomes. For the “it’s not 2018 anymore” crowd, when factoring in Roethlisberger’s two starts in 2019, Big Ben is still QB6 on a points-per-game basis since the beginning of the 2018 season. Rothlisberger is currently being drafted as QB16 in Round 12 of ESPN drafts. Rothlisberger’s passing targets for 2020 include: a healthy Juju Smith-Schuster, second-year breakout candidate Diontae Johnson, touchdown magnet Eric Ebron, and a healthy James Conner. It’s not just Roethlisberger - this entire offense is undervalued.
Jared Goff
Ending the trend of quarterbacks coming off injury with top-5 upside, insert Jared Goff. Goff - ironically - may be the riskiest of these five quarterbacks if you enter Week 1 with only one signal-caller. In 2019, from a total points standpoint, Goff was “good,” coming in at QB13. Under the microscope, though, Goff was QB21 on a PPG basis. I suggest using PPG rankings because it shows you the average of the amount of games a player plays - not the entire season [See Matthew Stafford.] Also, obviously, the games your player is out, you will start someone else, so total points really just amplifies players that play 16 games - that’s an accomplishment in itself but it doesn’t necessarily mean that player is as good as his end-of-year ranking suggests.
Piggybacking off this, Goff was QB7 [21.58 points] on a points-per-game basis Weeks 13-17 to close 2019 and is currently being drafted as QB20. Why cherrypick Weeks 13-17? Well, that’s when the Rams started running more 12 personnel, in spite of injury to Gerald Everett, and that’s their same plan heading into 2020. So, before I break down the next quarterback, I just want to make you aware that in the same span as Goff, Todd Gurley was RB12 [17.7 points] - now in Atlanta - Robert Woods was WR7 [20.5 points], and Tyler Higbee was TE1 [21.4 points]. Cam Akers - the Gurley replacement - is currently being drafted Round 9, Woods Round 5, and Higbee Round 8. Don’t be the guy in your league asking, “How’d you know they were gonna pop?” Draft these players at ADP, it’s low-risk, high-reward.
Daniel Jones
Another points-per-game gem in 2019, Daniel Jones was QB10 [21.58 PPG] the second half of the season Weeks 9-17 in six games of action. This brings me to my next point: Combing through end-of-year rankings at the end of a season is another good way to find potential diamonds in the rough. Using Jones as this example for 2020, Jones was a sturdy streaming option when he played in 2019, the caveat being when he played. Jones didn’t start until Week 3 and missed two additional starts, but in those 12 starts, Jones sneakily rushed for 30-plus yards five times [three of these games occurred Weeks 9-17] - helping Jones form a semblance of a floor. But the point of drafting Jones is upside! Being drafted as QB15 in ESPN leagues, Jones’ small sample size is worth betting on where he’s going - just in case he can play all 16 games and develop in Year 2. It helps Jones’ cause if his receiving corps can all stay relatively healthy. In 2019, there was no game where all three receivers and Evan Engram all played together.
Cam Newton
Saving the best for last, there might not be a signal-caller with as much upside as Cam Newton, especially going outside of the top 10 at the position in terms of ADP. Like with Ben Roethlisberger, 2018 is the last time Newton played more than two games in a season. Under OC Norv Turner - who you just know Josh Mcdaniels, the Patriots’ OC, studied - had Newton on pace for his Magnum Opus season. A quarterback that had a completion percentage over 60 percent just once prior to the arrival of Turner, Newton finished the season - 14 games - with a 67.9 completion percentage, a 94.2 QB Rating [second best of his career], and a 7.1 air yards per attempt. For the “he just dumped it off to Chrstian McCaffrey” crowd, who said that was a bad thing? Newton now has James White, who isn’t McCaffrey but can operate in a similar role for Newton in 2020.
The biggest drawback to Newton’s upside is the lack of speed in New England to help parlay his short depth of attempts into big-play yardage and touchdowns. However, in 14 games in 2018, Newton still ran for 488 yards. With Sony Michel likely to start the season on the PUP list, Newton possesses mega goal-line rushing upside - the question is whether Newton can move the offense down the field that far and can he himself move like he did pre-injuries. Currently being drafted as QB14 in Round 10, I’m willing to take that chance, knowing I can quickly punt if it’s a disaster. Since 2018, Newton is QB9 [18.71points] on a PPG basis in 16 games. A deeper dive, though, uncovers that Newton was even better the first half of the 2018 season before he was injured in a game against the Steelers that he continued to play through before ultimately being shut down. Weeks 1-8 in 2018, Newton was QB3 on a PPG basis. I’ll take that upside in the double digit rounds every time.
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